It’s been quite a run-up this year for the burgeoning Government 2.0 movement. Change has been in the air all year, despite the bunker mentality that too many feel in today’s national climate.

We have a new administration this year, a complex economic situation to clean up domestically, and we are challenged by a very large government bureaucracy that is not inclined or seemingly able to disrupt itself in order to solve today’s challenges.

This is not intended as a criticism, it’s just a problem statement. Clearly we want new and better ways to improve our government and Gov 2.0 offers solutions.

In fact, there’s mostly good news to tell. I described a rich vision for Government 2.0 earlier this year that I believe is a broad umbrella for the future of government. It takes into account what we’re actually seeing happening on the ground in terms of the real, on-the-ground innovation that does indeed take place in many corners of our government apparatus today. These innovations point the way towards a future that includes participatory citizenship and the Web as a civic platform as well as open data (both internally and externally to agencies and state/local governments) and social computing. And that’s just the beginning.

But this change is an intriguing one for those on the outside of it, particularly since technology is sometimes made the star of Government 2.0. This can initially alienate non-technologists, particularly at the senior levels where change can be mandated. So while technology is a critical enabler, the story of Government 2.0 is fundamentally about how we work with and relate to each other in government. It’s a people story just as much as a technology story. With genuine adoption and change on both sides of this equation, I truly believe Government 2.0 approaches will greatly improve our ability to govern, reduce red tape, cut gridlock, and enhance our democracy.

2009 Report Card: Steady Progress But Much Left To Do

But progress is slow in some areas despite many shining examples throughout the government, which I’ll round up before year’s end. Our new national CIO Vivek Kundra and CTO Aneesh Chopra have the incredible burden of turning a ship that is also one of the largest and most sophisticated governments ever created. Acting locally is thus one of the requirements for creating real change with these ideas. Fortunately, the viral nature of many aspects of Government 2.0 will help break down barriers. But it’s up to us to do the rest.

Government 2.0 approaches are now just starting to wash over the gunwales of most agencies that I talk to these days. It’s also clear that change is going to happen a little faster than some thought, though not as quickly as others might like. Understanding this balance will be key to what I think will actually happen next year. Consequently, I sat down this week and put together these Government 2.0 predictions based on the apparent rate of progress today:

Seven Government 2.0 Predictions for 2010

1. Social computing will continue to grow in government, but won’t hit critical mass in 2010. I highlighted the latent risk, control, and trust issues that seem to abound here when it comes to open collaboration and innovation in government using blogs, wikis, social networks, and other tools. There will be bright spots, but 2010 will be about working through the adoption issues and value equation. Don’t forget that there was some clamping down on social media in government during 2009 including the Marines restricting access to services such as Facebook, MySpace, Twitter. Progress in 2010 will be better in state and to a lesser extent local government. The federal government will also struggle with a consistent policy and approach for internal and external social computing, which probably won’t emerge next year. At least for 2010, the biggest gains will come from internal social computing efforts that directly drive policy and mission objectives. These efforts will end up validating social computing more broadly in the government.
2. Self-service integration and app creation makes deeper inroads. The enterprise mashups story is particularly strong in government at the moment and we see increasing evidence that the tools will ramp up strongly next year. Now that real standards have been established in the mashup space, we’ll begin to see traction that allows government workers to access, combine, and consume the open data that’s increasingly becoming available. The tyranny of Microsoft Excel won’t end overnight but this more decentralized, collaborative, and modern way of using government data will grow as mashups become a $2 billion industry by 2013.
3. Open data goes back to the drawing board. I’ve been bullish on open data and APIs for years and the government got religion in 2009 with data.gov. But the usage is down as government workers and businesses realize that the data is often far out-of-date and not in forms that can be used operationally. Notwithstanding this month’s new Open Data Directive, which mandates an open data plan in 120 days from all agencies, a retrenching will have to occur as the early forays garner vital lessons about how to provide open data in a way that is even more useful. The interest is there: Governments use data as the very fuel they operate on in today’s knowledge-based economy, as do many private sector businesses. But current open data offerings are still too static and moribund. Bringing together modern open API and SOA approaches will greatly help and 2010 will be about trying to find the success patterns of open data and delivering on them.
4. Cloud computing will go big. While many agencies will just use the technologies internally for now in order to have public options later, there is tremendous interest in the cloud in many of the government folks I speak with. They want to be able to take on challenges in a more agile fashion and achieve better operational flexibility. Not surprisingly, cost is rarely brought up as a motivator for government cloud adoption. Interest will turn into actual use in 2010 as public/private cloud technology continues to improve. You can listen to a podcast interview that Michael Krigsman and I did recently with Casey Coleman, CIO of the GSA, to get a sense of the interest in cloud and Government 2.0 in general.
5. Government 2.0 apps expand the boundaries of transparency and citizen involvement. The iPhone application Government Spending and the Arkansas Recovery Portal are just two examples of many that provide a Web-powered way for citizens and and those in the public sector to be plugged into a dashboard of what is taking place in the halls of government. Rapid feedback loops are being established with constituents and their institutions that will align the work of government with the population in a way that hasn’t been possible before. We’ve seen some Gov 2.0 apps for years but the data sources are just now getting good enough and rich enough that I expect we’ll see even more must-have apps next year. Some of these apps will considerably raise awareness of the possibilities of Gov 2.0 to the general public as well.
6. Government portals (rightly) continue to incorporate social media, but deep engagement will be elusive for now. I’ve seen many overhauls of government portals this year, including Utah.gov and the Department of Defense, prominently incorporate social media right on their home pages. To be clear, these are major advances for the government to make on the internal/external boundary and I encourage them. We’ll see more this year, but real social business engagement is still limited by their consumer origin. Sustained contact and value exchange with the rest of the government (and us) is down the road as more powerful social models are employed (see crowdsourcing below.) These are really important first steps however and they will continue next year.
7. Collaborative video, geo-enablement, mobile, and crowdsourcing will get initial lift but remain niches. While these advances are nearly 100% certain to be a major feature of the government in the year 2015, they are still bleeding edge today. Yes, many government conference rooms have video, but most cubicles do not. Yes, Blackberries are prevalent in government, but iPhones and Androids with a bevy of useful applications for government are not. Geo-location and crowdsourcing are also relatively far out as the ubiquity of the technology or the foreignness of the approaches pose obstacles for adoption. I’d love to hear of any other early stage Government 2.0 technologies or approaches that you know of.

I hope you enjoyed this list and found it useful to understand how Web 2.0 and Enterprise 2.0 is gaining adoption and moving into the government space. Please add any items I missed in comments below and don’t forget to catch Dr. Mark Drapeau’s own list of Government 2.0 predictions for 2010 for a different yet very good take on the same issues.